Monday, 5 February 2018

Market Trends (Elliott Wave Analysis on Dow)

MARKET TRENDS (5th Feb 18)
Important Economic Announcements for the week:
Tues: RBA Interest Rate Decision 11.30 am
Wed: ECB Non-Monetary Policy Meeting 4 pm
Thurs: RBNX Interest Rate Decision 5 am BOE Interest Rate Decision 8 pm
The Markets incredible run finally did a breather and what a break as it closes almost 800 points down for the Dow Jones Index on Friday. The non-farm and durable goods numbers beat expectations which reinforce the rate hikes from Federal Reserve should be on track which is expected to be 3 interest rate rises for the year. The first rate hike could be at the next Fed Meeting next month which will be sooner than expected. It led to the rout of the Treasuries as yields increases across the board through the entire yield curve.Lately, there has been an anomaly whereby the bonds and equities asset classes are moving in tandem where they should have an inverse relationship. This could be due to the years of easy monetary policy that led to an influx of excess liquidity searching for returns across different asset classes. Given the overvaluation of both asset classes, therefore when equities plunge, the funds might not feel comfortable loading up on to the bonds portion which they might already have an exposure. Thus, when the risk-off button is on, both asset classes could see a sell-off.
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