Is Tesla Finally a Value Play or The Fallen Star?

Contributed by: The Big Fat Whale

The buzz has been around Nvidia in recent times, this has led to Tesla taking a back seat. So with the lack of interest, is Tesla finally going to be a value play or a fallen star? Could there be more downside given the developments in the electronic vehicles landscape?

We have touched on Tesla twice in late 2020 and early 2021, the first article was when it was just included in the S&P500 and for the second article, their continued ascent led us to be sceptical. 

Tesla shares almost doubled after our first article- we are kind of embarrassed- before coming back to reality. Tesla shares have now fallen back to the 570 million dollar valuation when the first article was published.

Nonetheless, we were impressed with the 15 billion dollar profits for 2023 which was way above our expectations.

It is great to revisit this controversial stock that has fallen from its euphoric peak for now.

 

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https://thebigfatwhale.com/is-tesla-finally-a-value-play-or-the-fallen-star/

Is S&P500 ETF (SPY) the best bet for your retirement?-40% Tax

Contributed By: The Big Fat Whale

It is Warren Buffett’s advice that for most people, the best place to build your retirement nest egg is through indexing. This means buying into an S&P 500 ETF such as SPY. We try to explore whether is this the best course of action for your retirement.

On the whole, the S&P 500 have been racking in returns of close to 10% historically. That is a decent return for a passive investment strategy. However, it does come with equity volatility, which means you must be able to stomach drops of 50% during this journey of wealth accumulation.

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https://thebigfatwhale.com/is-sp500-etf-spythe-best-bet-for-your-retirement-40-tax/#google_vignette

Is Silver going to be a Great Investment- $50 Target?

Contributed By: The Big Fat Whale

In this article, we are covering the merits of investing in Silver. Will it be a great investment going forward? And will it revisit its peak of $50 established in April 2011?

We touched on Silver as one of the first few articles on this website in March 2021. After the article, it has been range bound between $18-$25. In recent times the price action looks great for a potential breakthrough of their key resistance at $30,

Hence, we decided to revisit our thesis and see if everything still firmed up nicely.

 

Technical Analysis of Silver

Source: TradingView

The peak of Silver at close to $50 was established during the Hunt Brothers' short squeeze in 1980 and 2011. The price of silver is still far off the peak and Gold has already broken its all-time high- trading at around $2400 now.

Source: TradingView

Zooming in on the charts, this is the fourth time that SIlver has tested the $30 mark since 2020. We could see volume has been higher over the past year as compared to the other periods. This could be a sign of accumulation.

So realistically, if there is a convincing break above $30, Silver at $50 as a target over the medium term would not be far-fetched.

We will be looking at the fundamental aspects to see if it could support such a move.

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https://thebigfatwhale.com/is-silver-going-to-be-a-great-investment-50-target/

 

Navigating the Investment Landscape in a Stagflation World- Revisiting the 1970s

Contributed By: The Big Fat Whale

Stagflation is the buzzword in recent times. The definition of stagflation will be persistent high inflation combined with high unemployment and stagnant growth in a country's economy.

The most relatable period in which we can have insights into the impact of stagflation would be a relook into the 1960s-1970s period. This was the only time in modern history(20th and 21st century) that this economic phenomenon has happened.

Inflation was persistently above the 8% mark throughout the period from 1972 to 1981.

History Rhymes

As Mark Twain famously quoted:

"History does not repeat itself but it certainly rhymes"

There are many market analysts and commentators that dismissed the possibility of stagflation happening and argue that the situation is different this time. One of the main arguments is that stagflation is caused by the oil shock in the 1970s which send oil prices spiralling up and the US was heavily dependent on it.

Currently, the US is a net exporter of oil as they have the largest shale oil reserve in the world and with the advent of alternatives (Solar, Wind and Nuclear), the impact of oil on the economy would be less pronounced.

But we might not have an oil shock but a debt shock could be on the cards which have been built up from trigger happy Quantitative Easing in the past. Debt to GDP is at a record of 124% versus 35% in the 1970s.

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https://thebigfatwhale.com/navigating-the-investment-landscape-in-a-stagflation-world-revisiting-the-1970s/

Riding The Commodities Boom- Wilmar

Contributed By: The Big Fat Whale

There has been recent talk about an inflationary spike and pressure on the overall economy. Commodities prices have been creeping up. This phenomenon is not surprising given the huge money press at work and it is still running on full steam- Biden's recent 2 trillion infrastructure bill was passed.

The current US debt is at 28 trillion dollars. We touched on the Fiat Money symptom in our article supporting Silver as a hedge against hyperinflation.

Source: Dow Jones Commodities Index- spglobal.com

Looking at the charts, the commodities prices have been on a steady ascent since mid-2020.

Looking around us, there have been new policies to increase wages of security guards to 3500 dollars by 2028. This is equivalent to or more than a fresh graduate pay in today's term. We can still remember our starting pay when we graduated ages ago was just 1800-2000 dollars.

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https://thebigfatwhale.com/riding-the-commodities-boom-wilmar/