Are Singapore REITs a Buy Now?- With Fed Potential Pivot

Contributed By: The Big Fat Whale

Many investment bloggers have touched on this topic given that the Singapore REITs have fallen by almost 30% from their mid-2021 peak. Is it a buy now?  Given the recent Fed guidance of a potential pivot to lower interest rates.

Frankly, the Fed has been flip-flopping but the all-important inflation numbers are at an almost ideal level of around 3%. It is still short of the 2% target but things seem to be under control.

REITs have been the bellwether for lots of retail investors given the perception of it being a safer instrument than true blue stocks. The attraction is that mandatorily, they have to pay out 90% of their income to shareholders as dividends.

Moreover, given that they are tangibly backed by shopping malls and industrial and commercial buildings, it added the assurance that their investment is not riding on some fads and whatnot.

 

SREITs Current Climate

They were doing well during the low interest rate environment which lasted since 2008 (Great Financial Crisis) and were stable in price fluctuations. The recent price drop would not be something that investors are used to. It is back to their Covid 19 lows or for some REITs, they set record lows.

With the Covid situation, it is understandable why REIT prices plunged as everyone is in locked-down mode, which will affect the rental situation in shopping malls and office buildings.

Source: Yahoo Finance

This time around, it is due to the rapid escalation of interest rates. In April 2022, the Fed rate was still hovering close to zero per cent and is now at the 5.5% rate. With the potential pivot hinted at by the Federal Reserve in  November 2023, it saw a renewed interest in REITs- the REITs index appreciated 15%. Prices have since retraced close to their all-time low due to the market perception of the credibility of the pivot.

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https://thebigfatwhale.com/are-singapore-reits-a-buy-now-with-fed-potential-pivot/

 

Retire in Style in Thailand for Singaporeans- Bangkok n etc

Contributed By: The Big Fat Whale

After our previous article on retiring in Johor Bahru for Singaporeans, we bring to you the idea of retiring in Thailand for Singaporeans in style.

It has been a choice weekend getaway to Bangkok for some retail, massage and food therapy. Or we could laze around on the pristine beaches of Phuket or Krabi. Not forgetting the charm and rustle of Chiang Mai and Hua Hin.

I guess the usual mirage of chilling by the cafe and having a laid-back retirement in a paradise setting is just such a nice picture of how we want to retire.

If we are still on to some online gigs or even trading and investing in the markets, it would be a good source of additional income while retiring.

Not forgetting the cost of living would be much lower than Singapore, which this article will be looking to unravel through the subsequent sections of this article.

Thailand is just a short air flight but in terms of distance, it would not beat JB which is a short MRT ride. Therefore, to have a full-time job in Singapore while staying in Thailand would likely not be a viable choice for those under employment.

 

Retirement Visas for Thailand

Before we can apply for a retirement visa, you have to be 50 years of age. So for those who have FIRE in their 30s, you might have to explore other options to have a long stay in Thailand (30 days for a normal trip based on Singapore’s visa exemption).

The applicant has to meet one of the following financial requirements:

• Hold a deposit of no less than THB 800,000 in a Thai bank account for at least 3 months.
• Receive a monthly income (including pension) of at least THB 65,000. As proof of monthly income, an affidavit must be obtained from the applicant’s embassy or consulate in Thailand.
• A combination of bank deposit and a yearly income of no less than THB 800,000. As supporting evidence, an updated bank book or letter from both the applicant’s bank and embassy must be submitted

Other documents that may be required to be presented:

• • Police Clearance
  • Medical Certificate
  • Health Insurance

The visa is valid for 1 year and is renewable after that. There is also a report to be made to the immigration office every 90 days to update them on your residence in Thailand. To apply for the retirement visa, you must first apply for a 90-day visa and stay in Thailand for 60 days before you can submit your application.

Not too sure about yourself, but I certainly feel this process could be smoothen out as there seem lots of administrative matters. Moreover, it is just a 1-year visa unlike Malaysia which is granting a 10-year visa.

Click Here for the Full Article:

https://thebigfatwhale.com/retire-in-style-in-thailand-for-singaporeans-bangkok/

Traders Zone: Forex Outlook- EUR/USD Poised for more Upside?

Contributed By: The Big Fat Whale

The news of the week has been the Fed's decision to hold the Fed Rate unchanged, and more importantly, there could be a pivot from their policy (ie: a possibility of rates decreasing). 

However, with inflation still hovering around 4%, that is short of their 2% target. Thus, our view is that the Fed rate should not see a huge drift and would be stabilising at current rates perhaps till the end of the year.

For this forex outlook, our focus will be more on analysing the technical analysis of the major pairs to highlight trading opportunities for the week ahead.

 

EUR/USD Charting Analysis

Source: Investing.com

We look at the 4-hour chart for the EUR/USD, it seems there is a possibility for further upside for the week ahead.

We will be hunting for entries around the 1.065-1.07 region with a stop at 30 pips which is in line with the Average True Range. 

The hint of not only a pause in the hike of the Fed rate but a potential pivot has driven the surge in EUR/USD. They have successfully broken out of their consolidation range for the month of October.

Our target for EUR/USD for the week ahead will be 1.078-1.08 region.

 

USD/JPY Charting Analysis

Source: Investing.com

Our view of USD/JPY is that the uptrend is still intact. It is indeed a good time to be going to Japan for holidays given the weakness of the Yen. The last time Yen was this weak against the USD was in 1990.

As long as the 148 level holds, we will be looking to place trades on the long side. 

A reversal of the trend would need to see a convincing break below the 148 level.

 

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Disclaimer:

The content here is for informational purposes only and should NOT be taken as legal, business, tax, or investment advice. It does NOT constitute an offer or solicitation to purchase any investment or a recommendation to buy or sell a security. The content is not directed to any investor or potential investor and may not be used to evaluate or make any investment. Do note that this is not financial advice. If you are in doubt as to the action you should take, please consult your stockbroker or financial advisor.

Retire in Style for Singaporeans in Malaysia- Johor Bahru

Contributed By: The Big Fat Whale

We believe that the escalating costs in recent times have really made us wonder if retirement is even possible. Do we have to work till much older than the legal retirement age of 63 years old? Are we able to retire in style?

Therefore, quoting from Bruce Lee, we should: "Be like Water", adapt to the conditions and be open-minded about the options available. We can create a greater lifestyle, lower our cost of living and embark on an incredible adventure.

With a lifestyle arbitrage, using the same amount of retirement funds, we could stretch our scarce funds or have an upgrade in living standards.

We decided to start a retirement series with Malaysia as our first coverage.

Our focus will be retiring on Johor Bahru as it might be one of the more viable options for Singaporeans. Other popular spots in Malaysia are Penang, Kuala Lumpur and Malacca.

 Malaysia Long Term Visa

So for a start, we will look at the requirements for a visa to have this sort of living arrangement.

For Singaporeans, there is no need for a visa if you do not intend to stay for a period exceeding 30 days. So in theory, you just have to clear the customs every month in order to renew your 30 days.

We are not sure if there will be issues if you keep crossing the border especially if you are still working. There could be a need for you to pop by your office a couple of days a week.

From the interviewees from this article by Channel News Asia, Work from home in JB: Some Singaporeans are relocating amid border reopening, hybrid arrangements, it seems there should not be too much of a problem with regards to not obtaining visas for Singaporeans intending to embark on this lifestyle.

Nonetheless, for those who want everything sorted out and be by the book, there are two visas that you could find applicable:

 

Malaysia My Second Home Program

To qualify for this program, the applicant must have liquid assets of at least MYR500,000, a monthly regular income of at least MYR10,000 and make a fixed deposit in a Malaysian bank of MYR300,000, half of which can be withdrawn to buy a house, purchase health insurance or pay for their children’s education.

After two years, part of the deposit may be withdrawn to use the car purchase concession, as long as a minimum balance of MYR150,000 is maintained during the entire stay in Malaysia under the program.

Click Here for the Full Article:

https://thebigfatwhale.com/retire-in-style-for-singaporeans-in-malaysia-johor-bahru/

Propnex A Value Play- Is Spore Property Prices Correcting?

Contributed by: The Big Fat Whale

• Propnex is trading at a PE of 11 and a dividend yield of 7.6%
• They have the largest amount of agents in Singapore
• Earnings have fallen by 18.8%
• Propnex Price has dropped 32% from their peak
• They have an impressive Return on Investment of 37%

Propnex has been a stock on our radar due to its great return on investment metric. Sadly, we have missed the good run that they had over the past 2 years. So with the recent correction in price, is it turning into a value play?

The stock market is a forward-looking proxy for the economy. Is the recent weakness in the price of Propnex an indication of a correction of Singapore Property Prices ahead?

We did an article on a likely property crisis in late 2022, and we still hold to the view that our thesis is valid.

We will dive into the different elements to hopefully unearth some useful insights. More importantly, we would like to know if Propnex at its current level is an investment worth considering.

 Property Price Trend- Singapore

Source: tradingeconomics.com

Let us first have a look at the property price trend in Singapore to have a better feel of the general direction. Looking at the URA Property Index which has done a coverage of private home prices, we are still seeing an uptick in the prices.

There was a slight decrease in 2023Q2 but for 2023Q3, the prices reverted back to their uptrend.

Looking through the charts from 2000, there were 3 evident corrections for the Singapore Property Market. They are in the early 2000s (9/11 and Sars), 2008 (Global Financial Crisis) and 2014 (Euro Crisis).

Source: HDB

The HDB (Public Housing) Price Index is showing an even stronger upward trajectory. There was no drop in prices for 2023Q2.

In essence, Singapore property prices are still in unchartered territories by reaching new highs. Even with the upsurge in interest rates, the government's restrictive policies (literally at 60% taxes for foreigners to buy a property- it has killed the interest of this segment), and big tech layoffs, the property market has remained resilient.

Click here for the Full Article:

https://thebigfatwhale.com/propnex-value-property-prices/