Showing posts with label Investment. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Investment. Show all posts

Saturday 22 January 2022

Moody's of South East Asia- Credit Bureau Asia

Contributed by: The Big Fat Whale

Credit Bureau Asia has been a stock that we are interested in since its IPO in December 2020 at 93 cents. However, the price has been on an upward trajectory that we missed the move to $1.58 as our value investor mindset sets in.

However, recently the price has dropped back to $1 and it stirs up our interest to take a second look at their business to see if our original bullish thesis is still valid.

Source: Moody's Website

As per our title, when we saw the prospectus of Credit Bureau Asia (CBA), we thought of it as the Moody's of South East Asia where it is providing credit reports and business data to help companies make better decisions. The only thing that might be different would be the pedigree as Moody's was established in 1909- CBA was founded in 1995.

Also, Moody's have the research arm and ability to issue credit rating for corporate bonds but CBA does not have this capability.

 

Reasons to be Bullish

The most important characteristic that attracted us to CBA is that the margins are rich and there is a strong moat; it is not easy to just set up a credit bureau without any connections. This is especially so in developing countries where CBA have a presence like Myanmar, Cambodia and Vietnam (They have just got a foothold in Vietnam recently through a joint venture).

CBA is also carving out their niche by focusing on SEA where they have an edge over others. Another attractive proposition is that it is in a recession-proof business and in times of crisis, the demand for credit reports and analysis might be even higher. Their business is also not capital intensive and therefore will be able to generate good Returns on Investment.

This type of business model is exactly a Buffet type of business with high margins and a strong moat- Buffet has a 13% stake in Moody's.

Here is the link for the full article: 

https://thebigfatwhale.com/moodys-of-south-east-asia-credit-bureau-asia/

 

Thursday 6 January 2022

Scams Aplenty- Beware!


Recently, during the usual social media binge, I chanced upon a sponsored video that featured a loser. He is working as a clerk and have no girlfriends in his life and so on and so forth. 

Miraculously, his life took a change for the better when he met a friend that introduce him to a jackpot scheme that earns him 1k a day. I am sure many of us will not fall prey to this potential scam as the warning signals are quite obvious.

Nonetheless, in recent times, scams or inflated investment schemes have been more elaborate and even a savvy well-educated individual could fall for it. I have just read this blog post where the author's dad lost almost 99.3% of his capital through land banking. We can definitely feel for him but the amount is still manageable, just imagine if he has sunk in his life savings. Here are just some scams or investment schemes through the years.


Help me get funds out and you get millions

Imagine back in those days, there were "Nigerian emails" schemes, where a government official from some African countries is getting a huge sum of funds out of their country. They would just need your help and you could get millions as a cut. The critical point is that you have to pay some transactional fees for their bank to remit the money out. Sounds familiar...


Lehman Bonds

I guess the most elaborated investment scheme that caused lots of damage would be the Lehman bonds that just yield 5%. I would deem it as a scheme as there is really underlying value in the form of housing mortgages. 

It was also structured by renowned banks with renowned counterparties and distributed and sold by the banks. Given the yield, we would deem it as a safe instrument and the marketing as Lehman bonds further mislead us as bonds issued by Lehman Brothers that have a great credit rating at that point in time.

To be frank, not many would take the time to read through the thick and boring prospectus and will take the bankers word at it. Even if the bankers have your best interest, I believe it might not be easy for them to decipher the risk to it given all the jargon- they ain't Michael Bury. 

Moreover, the rating agency has given AAA rating to the instrument. 


Glasgow Airport Carparks and UK Hostels

The Glasgow Airport Carpark scam looks really legit and was marketed as approved by the UK pension funds. It gives a yield of around 11% which is really attractive. Apparently, the company behind the scheme do not own the car park at all. The minimum quantum is at 25k pounds

There were also lots of UK hostels and hotels being pitched at an 8% yield. A friend of mine got into it in a pretty big way accumulating a portfolio of these hostels and hotels for yield. On the whole, it was ok but there were a couple that didn't manage to fulfil their obligations and the owners took over the properties. Instead of 8%, they were lucky to be getting just 1%-2%.

I think the bottom line will be to do due diligence on the underlying companies behind the project cause if they default, we will be in tears.


Recent Episodes

The most recent schemes have involved even bigger amounts with the most notable being The Envy group. More than 1 billion was involved and most of the victims are sophisticated and savvy individual and institutional investors. It way surpasses the 190 million Ponzi scam of the Sunshine empire that targeted heart-landers.

Also, even SMS from the banks, we have to be sceptical as recent phishing via SMS scam impersonating OCBC bank have seen almost 5 million dollars being lost.


In a nutshell

It is really an environment that we have to be more vigilant in order to safeguard our hard-earned savings. The schemes and scams have become more sophisticated where even the well heeded would fall prey to.

We just hope more targeted public education would reduce the probability of more people being victimised. 

Our blog would do our part by highlighting investment schemes that we feel is worth more due diligence whenever we come across any.

On a parting note, we would advise everyone should do more research when investing in an instrument or plan, just as if you are buying a car or a house.


Disclaimer:
The information contained in this publication is provided to you for general information only and is not intended to nor will it create/induce the creation of any binding legal relations. The information or opinions provided do not constitute investment advice, a recommendation, an offer or solicitation to subscribe for, purchase or sell the investment product(s) mentioned herein. It does not have any regard to your specific investment objectives, financial situation and any of your particular needs. Accordingly, no warranty whatsoever is given and no liability whatsoever is accepted for any loss arising whether directly or indirectly as a result of any person or group of persons acting on this information. Investments are subject to investment risks including possible loss of the principal amount invested. The value of the product and the income from them may fall as well as rise.
You may wish to obtain advice from a financial adviser before making a commitment to purchase any of the investment products mentioned herein. In the event that you choose not to obtain advice from a financial adviser, you should assess and consider whether the investment product is suitable for you before proceeding to invest.
Any views, opinions, references or other statements or facts provided in this publication are personal views and shall disclaim any liability for damages resulting from errors and omissions contained.






The Future of Medical Care- Teladoc

Contributed by: The Big Fat Whale


The telehealth market is one of the most glaring in terms of growth potential that surfaced during the recent pandemic. It is coming in from a low base initially and with Covid 19 in full force, it has triggered the adoption in huge strides. The regulatory issues were also quickly expedited for a smooth transition as quarantine became a norm for many.


Source: www.grandviewresearch.com

 

From the estimates by Grandview Research, the total market potential could reach 300 billion dollars in 2028, which gives us a compounded return of 22.4%- it is a good run-way of consistent and viable growth.  That is just the North American region.

These estimates are also backed by Mckinsey forecast for a 250 billion dollars telehealth market- a 20% share of the total medical market.

 

Strong continued uptake, favourable consumer perception, and tangible investment into this space are all contributing to the continued growth of telehealth in 2021. New analysis indicates telehealth use has increased 38X from the pre-COVID-19 baseline.

Source: Mckinsey


Here is the link to the full article:

https://thebigfatwhale.com/the-future-of-medical-care-teladoc/ 


Friday 31 December 2021

Your Gateway to Digital Payments- PayPal

Contributed By: The Big Fat Whale

The digital payment industry has been on a steady climb for many years given the e-commerce revolution. The Covid 19 situation, has further led to new users who usually would not have shopped online to come onboard. All these bode well for a good runway for further consistent growth ahead.

With the coming of the new era of Metaverse by Meta, where the future could be split between your virtual and physical world, the need for a digital wallet would be essential. The digital wallet could be used for keeping your digital currency, digital assets (NFTs) and other digital-related items.

Source: Mordor Intelligence

The transaction value of the digital payments market was USD 5.44 trillion in 2020, and it is projected to be worth USD 11.29 trillion by 2026, registering a CAGR of 11.21% from 2021 to 2026

Source: Mordor Intelligence

The global payments market is expected to grow from $466.29 billion in 2020 to $517.68 billion in 2021 at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 11%. The market is expected to reach $735.39 billion in 2025 at a CAGR of 9.2%.

Source: Businesswire.com

The growth as predicted by both Modor Intelligence and Businesswire for the digital payment industry would be in the region of around 11% for the next 5 years. This is consistent growth rather than exceptional growth but one thing is for sure, it is still a sunrise sector. Hence, it is going to be a good place to look for potential investments.


Here is the full article on the Merits of Investing in PayPal:

https://thebigfatwhale.com/your-gateway-to-metaverse-paypal/


 



Thursday 30 December 2021

King of Internet of Things- Xiaomi

We could still remember the first exposure to Xiaomi was by ordering online their smartphones many years ago. They managed to create a cult branding as most of their smartphones are sold within minutes during those days. It is not surprising as they have most of the features of an iPhone but yet is trading at a fifth of their price.

 

Source: Xiaomi Homepage 


Xiaomi has since evolved from the early days and has now in their product catalogue, a mind-boggling amount of household appliances and gadgets, on top of their smartphone range. The household appliances are connected to the Mi Home and the data analytics from the usage of the products would be Xiaomi's edge compared to their competitors.

The more prominent products in their line-up will be smartphones, smartwatches, robot vacuum cleaners, smart tv, fridge, air-conditioners, laptops and washing machines. Their products are in more than 80 markets.

Xiaomi's vision is not to make huge profits from the sale of hardware as they have explicitly stated they would not surpass a net profit margin of 5%.

With their good value and quality products, they hope to link all the devices to their ecosystem, they would then be able to monetize from the strength of their ecosystem.

This strategy is similar to Gillette selling the shaver cheaply and earning huge margins from the sale of blades.


Here is the link for the full article:

https://thebigfatwhale.com/king-of-internet-of-things-xiaomi/


 

Saturday 25 December 2021

Fed's Latest Move- Demise of ARKK and Innovation Stocks?

Contributed by: TheBigFatWhale


With the latest move by the Fed, where they are looking to have 3 interest rate hikes in 2022 and into reducing their balance sheet, growth stocks have not been faring well. The move by Fed is a move towards a monetary tightening policy that will drain the exodus of liquidity that has been pumped into the economy since early 2020. 


Fed Balance Sheet

Source: Tradingeconomics.com- Fed Balance Sheet


The Fed Balance sheet has more than doubled since 2020 which is a worrying sign that things are going out of control. Therefore, the indication by Fed to reduce their balance sheet is a sound and prudent move provided they are really serious about doing it. We touch on our previous article about the 6 indicators to gauge if the S&P 500 is peaking with the Fed Balance sheet as one of our concerns.

With a potential stoppage of easy money, the prospects for growth stocks could be bleak. Most of the growth or innovation stocks run on the theory that they would be wildly profitable once they are able to scale. Moreover, it is the vision for the future and it will disrupt the whole way things are done. 


Click Here to Read More:

https://thebigfatwhale.com/feds-latest-move-demise-of-arkk-and-innovation-stocks-quick-thoughts/

NFTs as an Alternative Investment?

Contributed by: TheBigFatWhale

There have been lots of hype on NFTs recently. It is not surprising given that the Beeple NFT digital art piece, " The First 5000 days" was sold for a whopping 69 million dollars. It was purchased by a Singaporean, Vignesh Sundaresan (Metakovan), who have the conviction that it would be worth a billion dollars in the future. Fun Fact: Beeple has not sold any of his digital art for more than $100 before this auction.

The origin of NFTs could be dated back to 2014 where bitcoin minted the coloured coins. In 2017, Cryptopunks and Cryptokitties was the impetus to pivot the NFTs market.

To have a feel of the prices in the digital NFTs market, you could check out the 10 most expensive digital art to date.

Considering that CryptoPunks was a project by Larva Labs to create 10000 uniquely generated characters using the Ethereum network through an algorithm. Ethereum is the second most popular blockchain after Bitcoin and has been used for commercial contracts.

They gave out all the characters for free at its launch in 2017- in the NFT world, it is called an NFT drop. Now some of them are worth millions of dollars- what a joy to be one of the frontrunners and get a character of the Cryptopunks to call our own.

 

Source: Pexels

So what exactly is NFT?

The term for it is non-fungible tokens and they are unique by themselves, that is backed by a multimedia file. It could be digital art, video, music tune, sound recording, a tweet (Jack Dorsey first tweet sold for $2.9 million) or even a blog post, etc.

The difference between an NFT and a bitcoin would be bitcoin is fungible. There is no difference between one and the other and that makes it exchangeable; Bitcoin is like digital gold. As for NFT, most of them are currently minted in the Ethereum network, it is an original token or one of its kind.

Therefore, once we buy an NFT token, it is similar to owning a baseball card or being an owner of an original painting. Scarcity brings demand and hence possibly higher prices in the future if we choose the right NFT- must have an eye to find the next Monet, Miro or Dali of the digital art world.


Click Here To Read More:

https://thebigfatwhale.com/nft-as-an-alternative-investment/